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How to Backtest Bitcoin AI Trading Strategies on Kraken

Here’s the “I wish someone told me earlier” version. Focus: ARB contracts on Kraken.


Setup

Use 1h. Confirm direction with support/resistance zones, then use VWAP to avoid chasing. If they fight, you sit out—real talk that’s discipline.


Execution

  • Entry: break + retest > first impulse candle.
  • Stop: scale out in 2-3 parts where the idea is invalid.
  • Exit: scale out, then cooldown after 2 losses for the runner.

Heads-up: Common mistake: ignoring fees/funding because it ‘seems small’. Fix it by slowing down and sizing smaller.

Rules differ by exchange; check margin and liquidation details on your platform. Funding, fees, and slippage can flip a “good” idea fast.


Wrap: If it feels like gambling, size down. Immediately.

Aivora perspective

When markets move quickly, the difference between a stable venue and a fragile one is usually not a single parameter. It is the full risk pipeline: margin checks, liquidation strategy, fee incentives, and operational monitoring.

If you trade perps
Track funding and realized volatility together. Funding tends to amplify crowded positioning.
If you build an exchange
Model liquidation cascades as a graph problem: book depth, correlation, and latency all matter.
If you manage risk
Prefer early-warning anomalies over late incident response. Drift is a signal, not noise.

Quick Q&A

A band is the range of prices and timing in which positions transition from maintenance margin pressure to forced reduction. Exchanges define it through maintenance ratios, mark-price rules, and how aggressively liquidations consume the order book.
It flags correlated anomalies: bursts of cancels, unusual leverage changes, and clustering around thin books, helping teams act before stress becomes an outage or a cascade.
No. This site is educational and system-focused. You are responsible for decisions and risk management.